Applied strategic foresight is a systematic analytical process of working with uncertain futures for the present (Balthasar 2024). It is used in many disciplines, including business (Costanzo 2004; Hines & Slaughter, 2006; and Rohrbeck & Schwarz, 2013), the military (from scenario planning) (Mietzner & Reger, 2005), development management (Balthasar 2024), public governance (Habegger 2010), and even not-for-profit non government organizations (Bezold 2010). There has been an increasing number of publications that cover strategic foresight (SF) in recent years (Iden & Christensen, 2017), albeit it, arguably, can still be made more expansive and multi-dimensional.
It is not the same as forecasting—which begins with known areas to be observed in the past or the present and ends with identification of possible futures with methodological instruments used. Cuhls (2003) clearly delineated the separation between applied foresight and forecasting and even with fate (one future vs many futures). While forecasting and predicting will bring managers to probable future scenarios, SF opens the possibilities further to include the plausibilities. Rather than what’s certain, foresight helps in surfacing futures one might have not even considered in the past. It can even cover longer timelines in the future, which conservative forecasting may not reach, e.g., beyond 10 years.
Foresight principles give strategists or futurists the capacity to form meaningful representations of the competitive landscape in plausible futures, with simplified mental pictures of select action alternatives and identify their consequences (also, and again, “plausible”). It is then the job of the strategist or futurist to find the best “position” on the different scenarios (Gavetti & Menon 2016).
Perhaps unbeknownst to many, SF is a tool that has been proven by time, like in the case of Apple (Bereznoy 2017). Hines & Slaughter (2006) argue that many scenarios when big firms fail could have been avoidable through applied strategic foresight, such as in Kodak’s case (Rohrbeck & Gemunden, 2013). The future is unpredictable, but SF helps keep futurists closer to futures that were, in the past, simply preposterous. Arguably, if SF has been exhausted and applied as a strategy by many firms decades ago, many of them could have prepared better for the impact of the global COVID 19 pandemic to mobility and the economy.
Northwestern University in the Philippines is one of the institutions in Asia which has hosted UNESCO Chairs in futures, foresight, and anticipation. There have been projects focused on building capacities for and institutionalize foresight like The National Academy of Science and Technology’s (NAST) Pagtanaw 2050 National Technology Foresight Project, the Department of Science and Technology’s (DOST) Foresight Initiatives, the Department of Health’s (DOH) National Futures Thinking Program, and the National Economic Development Authority’s (NEDA) Strategic Foresight to Strategy and Innovation Development Projects (Gáspár & Cruz, 2024). However, these efforts in the Philippines are still considerably distant from Singapore’s initiatives, where almost all government units have their own foresight divisions to mainly do scenario planning and designing alternative plausible futures for present strategies (Cruz, et al., 2016).
Unfortunately, no literature has focused on the application of SF and its direct application to non-bank financing in the Philippines yet. Financing, in this study, includes “lending” and “refinancing”—terms commonly used interchangeably in the realm of finance.
Asialink Finance Corp. (AFC), established in 1997 at the midst of the Asian Financial Crisis, has become one of the leading nonbank financial institutions in the Philippines. With 247 branches nationwide, it provides secure lending to individuals and businesses using motor vehicles as collateral (Asian Development Bank 2024). Its president and managing director for the longest time before 2025, was Apples Mangubat, was interviewed about strategic foresight.
Mangubat affirms she recognizes the term “strategic foresight” and that she recalls hearing if from a previous conversation or discussion. She added that she knows what it means and that she always hears about it during strategy discussions within the organization. However, she noted that it is not normally a priority strategy when formulating organizational action plans. Nonetheless, she believes that it can help improve the non-bank financing industry in the Philippines even further.
Mangubat: “If you look at the processes right now na kinuha ng Asialink, even within the group diba, we already implemented the risk management, and also we want to see whatever event will happen and its effect to our organization eh [sic].” [If you look at the processes right now adopted by Asialink, even within the group, right, we already implemented the risk management, and also we want to see whatever event will happen and its effect to our organization].
Guanzon: “Right.”
Mangubat: “So, usually kasi you have to anticipate everything, lagi natin naririnig yan diba?” [So, it’s because usually you have to anticipate everything—we always hear that, right?]
Guanzon: [verbal nod]
Mangubat: “Huwag mo lang iisipin nangyayari today, isipin mo mangyayari bukas at makalawa.” [Don’t just think about what is going to happen today, think about what could happen tomorrow and the next.]
Mangubat provided the COVID-19 lockdown crisis as an initial example, to which she said, after learning about “some virus” in 2019 in other countries, she has already thought of the worst, including the locking down of cities, which eventually happened months after. Her “foresight” helped her organization prepare for such an incident, and made them resume financing operations mostly from home without much unplanned adjustments.
She shared that there are many other internal events that she has foreseen have actually happened, including some personal critical matters/changes that cannot be publicly disclosed.
Mangubat: “You know, ah siguro one of the things na kailangan ng leader is you should always have that curiosity and then the other one is you have to be updated on current events.” [You know, perhaps one of the things a leader needs is always having that curiosity. And then the other one is being updated on current events.]
She agrees to having SF as critical to leaders not just in the financing industry, but in other areas and sectors as well.
The interview confirms the understanding of the term, “strategic foresight”, and its value to the non-bank financing industry. It appears, however, that much still needs to be done to formally consider SF as a tool for management strategy, and for it to be regularly done in exploring ways to improve businesses in the pertained sector.
SF is used in other areas in the Philippines, including corporate (Magon, et al., 2023; and Sudan 2020), academe (Sulasula 2023), and public administration (Muñoz 2021). One of the academic institutions that facilitates learning applied strategic foresight in formal classroom setup is the Asian Institute of Management (AIM). Another is the Development Academy of the Philippines which offers the Certificate Course on Foresight and Futures Thinking (CC-FFT). “The CC-FFT promotes innovation in public policy-making and planning through the paradigms of futures thinking and strategic foresight,” (Development Academy of the Philippines, dap.edu.ph, accessed February 8, 2025).